This article over at Natural Gas Intel includes a lot of useful information about Antero Resources’ plans for the upcoming year. In short, they plan to scale back production for a while before ramping back up at the end of the year. They’ll be running 11 rigs and seven completion crews. They’re going to be holding back completion of 50 wells, waiting for prices to come back up.
This jives well with the sense that we’ve been getting about oil and gas prices and production from fracked wells, and the amount of oil and gas that is currently in storage. Sometime this summer we’ll probably see a drop off in production from already producing wells. That drop off in production will be offset by bringing wells that have already been drilled but not completed into production. As the number of drilled but non-producing wells starts to decline companies will begin to see the need to start drilling more. This need will come from completed or soon-to-be completed pipelines and energy plants. We don’t really see that need arising as early as the end of this year, but Antero probably has better research and data available to it than we do, so we’ll trust them. Look for drilling to pick back up at the end of this year.
EDIT: As of July of 2015 we began to see an uptick in the number of people calling the office with questions about leases. Surprisingly, they haven’t been from Antero. We’ve begun hearing from Mountaineer Keystone and EQT. It seems that in preparation for drilling in 2016, and after having reviewed the first half numbers, some companies have begun taking leases again.