Monthly Archives: February 2020

The State of Oil and Gas: Feb 15, 2020

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Gas prices are at $1.84/MMBtu, and rig counts are the same as they were last week.

EQT is going to sell an overriding royalty, hoping to raise $1 billion.

At least one person thinks that fracking has led to fewer recessions.

Gas prices are not expected to get above $4/MMBtu until 2050. 2050! I’m not surprised. Unless there’s some kind of long, big, sudden emergency, the supply of gas is going to outpace demand.

John Hess, CEO of major oil corporation Hess Corporation, says that fracking in America is going to slow down in the next few years. Basically, he thinks we’re just about tapped out of new shale to drill.

Coronavirus is a black swan event, and will cut back on oil demand. Exactly how much is really unknown at this time as the virus’ spread and consequent affect on everything is still unknown.

EQT is in trouble, but not so much that they couldn’t declare a dividend for their stocks. It’s just 3 cents, but hey, it’s something. Guess they shouldn’t be cutting back on how much they pay people for their leases.

An article at Seeking Alpha dives deep into how capital expenditures in oil and gas are dying off and concludes that natural gas prices are going to go up again soon. The one thing he doesn’t talk about is how much more efficient drillers have become in the last few years. Gas prices are going to stay down for a while.

West Virginia’s legislature is trying to criminalize trespassing on critical infrastructure facilities (pipelines). Seriously? Why should pipelines get special consideration? We already have trespass laws on the books.

The State of Oil and Gas: Feb 1, 2020

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Today, the price of natural gas is $1.84/MMBtu, and rig counts are still trending down.

The West Virginia legislature is looking at a couple bills that will affect oil and gas production and development.

China is going to be buying more natural gas from us over the next few years. This is going to help — a little — with natural gas prices. We can produce so much natural gas that it’s not going to make a big difference.

One fellow thinks that oil services companies are past the worst part of the downturn.

EQT’s stock has been downgraded — to junk!

LIbya is not producing oil right now (civil war, I feel for those folks), but the price of oil is actually going down. Fracking has made the U. S. much less dependent on foreign oil. Even just a few years ago, Libyan oil going off the market would have resulted in a strong bounce in oil prices.

The President is encouraging European nations to buy American LNG.

Two workers were injured on a well pad in Marshall County. The oil patch is dangerous.

Pennsylvania upheld the Rule of Capture in oil and gas law.

RBN Energy does a deep dive into natural gas prices and predicts (no surprise) that gas prices will remain down.

Seeking Alpha looked at Cabot’s numbers and it looks like Cabot can make money clear down to $2/MMBtu. That’s impressive.

Forbes is cautiously optimistic about the new oil and gas trade deal with China.

Seeking Alpha suggests that at least part of the reason production went up while drilling went down is that drillers were bringing DUCs online. That’s….actually a really good point.

NGI predicts sub-$2.00 gas for 2020, calls it Gasmageddon. Nice.

On the other hand, one writer over at Seeking Alpha thinks drilling has been going down long enough that we’ll start to see reduced production soon, and $3.00 gas with it.

We’re beginning to see hints that we’re at the bottom of the market. It’s probably going to stay here a while, particularly if the winter weather stays mild–which is likely. With rig counts down and demand only climbing slightly, we don’t expect to see any significant changes in the market until next fall. Natural gas prices will rebound back up over $2.00, and probably over $2.25, but they are unlikely to go higher than that for long.