The State of Oil and Gas: March 1, 2020

The price of natural gas is $1.75/MMBtu (as low as $1.64 at one point), and rig counts are 790. Things haven’t changed much in the last two weeks. Even storage levels are still just above the five year average, as they have been for months. We seem to have hit bottom.

Oil prices are stabilizing. Investors seem to think that the effect of coronavirus on oil demand has now been built in to the price of oil and it doesn’t need to change any more. Of course, if coronavirus starts to affect a lot more people, that could change.

Antero is working to cut its costs and increase production — same old, same old. They mention a 10% reduction in General and Administrative Costs, which is from a layoff in 2019 and natural attrition of employees quitting for various reasons. Doesn’t look to us like another layoff coming. This year is probably going to end with no growth from any of the drilling companies, few leases taken relative to the past, and fewer acres drilled. Our clients will be getting less money from royalties and from lease bonuses. If that’s what you’re relying on to get you through the year, you’d better find another source of income.

This article makes the argument that natural gas prices are going to remain down for the foreseeable future.

Interestingly, the West Virginia Senate passed a bill that will encourage the development of solar power in the state. The bill moves on to the House next.

Production is decreasing. This is the first time that has happened in…..well, a long time. It’s not anything to get too excited about. Production will increase the second prices stay up a bit, so prices will never skyrocket. Good for consumers, bad for royalty owners.

The West Virginia legislature is pushing a bill that would create tax credits for companies that store or transfer natural gas. It’s aimed at cracker plants and large storage facilities. It would be financially beneficial to have those plants here rather than the Gulf Coast.

Chevron sold off its assets in the Marcellus shale area, and now it’s firing its employees.

Producers have been bringing DUCs online as that’s a cheaper way of getting some gas to market than drilling a new well. The supply of DUCs is going down, though. At some point they’ll have gone through most or all of the DUCs. What happens then?

A 24-inch gas pipeline ruptured in Mississippi, injuring 46 and forcing 300 to evacuate.