The State of Oil and Gas: February 3, 2017

The cracker plant being built in Pennsylvania has passed another hurdle: Potter Township has approved permits to begin construction.  The process took longer than what one might have expected, with the Township holding extra meetings and requesting additional documents from the company on a couple of occasions.  The Township gave it’s approval with several important conditions, including compliance with a noise ordinance, traffic analyses, and the commission of a lighting study.  It seems the Township is actually concerned about effects other than economic effects.  That’s wise.

I have thing for small-scale stuff and for oil and gas tech, so I’m posting this here.  Up in north-central PA a company has put a small-scale liquefaction plant into use.  Since it seems to be a relatively new technology it’s probably rather expensive and so won’t see extensive deployment across the Marcellus/Utica region.  For clients whose minerals are in areas without pipeline infrastructure in place, this would be a solution to suggest to your oil and gas producer.

The analogy isn’t perfect, but this writer puts into words what I’ve been thinking about the current struggle between OPEC and U.S. frackers.

January 23: An oil leak in a major oil field in Kuwait has affected the production of oil.  Just like that, oil prices have jumped $1.00.  Let’s see what happens tomorrow, shall we?

I fully expect renewables to cut in to fossil fuel use eventually, and compete on the open market on price.  Every time I turn around, though, it turns out that some renewable project or other is not working the way it was supposed to.  The most recent one is out in California.  It was supposed to be primarily solar, with some natural gas to assist at night.  Turns out it’s using more gas than advertised.  Renewables are the future, but that future still looks to be distant.

January 25: Libya is opening up to outside investment to help with development of its oil fields.  Since Ghadaffi was deposed, oil development has been minimal, and closed to foreign investment.  This could help Libya start producing a lot of oil again in the long-term.  This news shouldn’t have much effect on the price of oil in the short-term.

President Trump has signed an executive order that will allow both the Keystone Pipeline and the Dakota Access Pipeline to move forward.  Both will transport oil, so shouldn’t have a direct effect on natural gas prices.  It may take some of the attention away from the Atlantic Coast and the Mountain Valley pipelines, so we may see less news about them in the near future.

January 26: The price at the pump went down ten cents today in Buckhannon.  I was not expecting that, as the price of oil hasn’t dropped significantly lately.

The US dollar is strong and likely to stay strong for the foreseeable future.  A strong dollar will always drive the price of oil down a bit.  However, since it’s strong and will likely stay strong, the real determining factor for the price of oil in the near future will be simple supply and demand.

Renewable energy has weathered an oil bust for the first time in my memory.  That suggests to me that renewable energy has reached a critical mass of sorts.  I expect renewables to become a larger source of electrical energy generation.  This article at the IEA suggests that worldwide power generation from renewables will be at 60% of worldwide power use by 2021.  I’m a little skeptical, but I’ll be watching renewables closely.

The folks over at oilprice.com see lots of money pouring in to the oil and gas industry.

American companies are putting rigs back in the patch, and investors expect an additional 315,000 barrels per day by the end of the year.  That won’t catch up with the 1.8 million barrels per day cut by OPEC.  It looks like OPEC’s cut is going to work for the time being.