Ford F-150, Natural Gas Edition

Ford F-150 CNG

The last generation of Ford F-150s offered a natural gas version of the six-cylinder engine.  The demand was higher for that engine than Ford anticipated, so they’re now offering a 5.0-liter V8 natural gas option.  Awesome!

You can check out a few more details over at Autoblog.  Ford’s website doesn’t make it easy to find information on the natural gas options, but I imagine if someone walked into a dealership and requested one that the salesmen would be happy to help.

The obvious drawback is refueling.  If there are no CNG stations in your area, this truck will be ridiculously impractical.  If you’re not going to be deterred, however, you could get a Phill home refilling station.  Be forewarned that refilling at home can have detrimental effects on your warranty.  Read it carefully before deciding.

UPS is Adding 60 LNG Trucks to its Fleet

Liquid Natural GasThis is the kind of news we like to see!  UPS is adding more Liquid Natural Gas fueled trucks to its existing fleet.  The new trucks will be based in Harrisburg, PA, taking advantage of inexpensive natural gas from the Marcellus and Utica shales.

One of the main drivers behind low prices for bonuses and royalties in West Virginia right now is the fact that there just isn’t enough demand for the product.  Wells are being shut in because there isn’t enough pipeline capacity to handle all the production.  Local use of natural gas would help drive those prices up.  Let’s see more natural gas vehicles!

It’s Time for the U.S. to Export Oil

Oil TankerOil producers in the United States are not allowed to export oil.  It was a policy started back in the 70s with the energy crisis.  I imagine that it accomplished its stated purpose at the time, it probably protected the American public from high gas prices.  We didn’t have enough oil for our own needs, so shipping it abroad didn’t make much sense.  Now we have plenty, or pretty close to it, and we’re looking at being able to bring a whole lot more to the surface.  Exporting oil shouldn’t hurt gas prices, and according to this article over at the Council on Foreign Relations, it might even help gas prices.  That statement didn’t make a whole lot of sense to me either at first, but the article makes a pretty good case.  Regardless, we need to be able to ship our oil abroad.

The Latest on Oil Price Predictions

Dollar SignOil prices have dropped for a couple of days because the Saudis said they would keep pumping oil to keep up with demand.  Basically, if somebody wants to buy their oil, they’re going to sell it.  I’m personally surprised that anybody is surprised at this.  I’ll be surprised when the Saudis start to cut back on production.  Why the market thinks that the Saudis want high oil prices right now is beyond me.  They haven’t yet accomplished any of their (suspected) goals, except for keeping market share.  U. S. shale drillers are not yet going out of business in large numbers, and Venezuela, Russia, and Iran have not been hurt enough to make any serious changes.  Until those goals are accomplished, Saudi Arabia is going to keep pumping oil so that they keep their current customers.

On the other hand, experts are predicting that rig counts will bottom out in May.  I think this is too soon to start bringing rigs back, as supply needs to drop and prices need to climb before more rigs become economically sound.   Supply isn’t going to drop enough to justify bringing rigs back online because producers will be able to bring previously drilled non-producing wells online.

 

Antero’s Plans for 2015

This article over at Natural Gas Intel includes a lot of useful information about Antero Resources’ plans for the upcoming year.  In short, they plan to scale back production for a while before ramping back up at the end of the year.  They’ll be running 11 rigs and seven completion crews.  They’re going to be holding back completion of 50 wells, waiting for prices to come back up.

This jives well with the sense that we’ve been getting about oil and gas prices and production from fracked wells, and the amount of oil and gas that is currently in storage.  Sometime this summer we’ll probably see a drop off in production from already producing wells.  That drop off in production will be offset by bringing wells that have already been drilled but not completed into production.  As the number of drilled but non-producing wells starts to decline companies will begin to see the need to start drilling more.  This need will come from completed or soon-to-be completed pipelines and energy plants.  We don’t really see that need arising as early as the end of this year, but Antero probably has better research and data available to it than we do, so we’ll trust them.  Look for drilling to pick back up at the end of this year.

EDIT: As of July of 2015 we began to see an uptick in the number of people calling the office with questions about leases.  Surprisingly, they haven’t been from Antero.  We’ve begun hearing from Mountaineer Keystone and EQT.  It seems that in preparation for drilling in 2016, and after having reviewed the first half numbers, some companies have begun taking leases again.

Pipelines are the Chokepoint

There’s an interesting article over at Environment & Energy Publishing that puts forth the premise that a lack of pipeline infrastructure is what’s really slowing down the growth of shale fracking.  I think they’re right.  Of course, once pipelines are in place, consumption will need to increase, but consumption will increase if the pipelines can be put in place.  There’s too much demand for cheap, clean energy, and natural gas offers the best balance of clean and cheap right now.

The Fracklog

Oil and gas prices aren’t going to rise astronomically in the near future.  That is, unless some unpredictable market force comes into play.  The reason: the fracklog.

Drillers have drilled lots of wells, but they have not turned them all on.  As prices come up, drillers will turn those wells on, and prices will either drop or stabilize.  There is a backlog of wells waiting to be turned on, or as Bloomberg puts it, a fracklog.

This Bloomberg article goes into more detail.

Forced Pooling is Not a Job Creator

Pat McGeehan has written another article against forced pooling, or “lease integration” or “fair pooling”, as it is also being called.  He makes a number of good points, all of which could be turned into articles of their own.  I’d like to take some time to address one particular point.

The proponents of forced pooling say that it will be a job creation bill.  I was surprised when I heard that.  It had never occurred to me that the forced pooling bill would create jobs.  Having thought about it some, I’m still of the opinion that the forced pooling bill will not create jobs.  Maybe it’s because I’ve worked in several different capacities in the industry, so I have a better idea of what jobs there are and the forces that drive creation of those jobs, but I simply don’t see how this will create jobs.

What forced pooling does do is make it easier to put together drilling units, making it faster and easier to drill and faster and easier to produce.  One could say that that means there will be more jobs, as there will be more drilling, but it’s not ease of creating units that slows down or speeds up drilling.  It’s the price of oil and gas that increases and decreases drilling.  No bill making it easier to put together drilling units is going to affect oil and gas jobs the way demand does.  In fact, one could argue that forced pooling will increase supply due to increased drilling, thus driving down demand.

PrintOne could also argue that forced pooling will decrease jobs due fewer landmen being needed to put together drilling units.

So I don’t see forced pooling as a job creation bill.  I do, however, see it as a profit creation bill.  Easier creation of units means less expense in development, and less expense means more profit.  I don’t have anything against profit, a company has to make a profit to be able to stay in business.  I simply dislike characterizing a legislative bill as a job creation measure when it’s actually a profit creation measure.