Mountain Valley Pipeline, Update

Gas Pipeline Construction West Virginia

Yesterday evening, FERC held a meeting in Jackson’s Mill, West Virginia, to take comments from the public on the proposed Mountain Valley Pipeline.  We were unable to attend, but Roger Adkins from the Intermountain wrote an excellent article.

The Mountain Valley Pipeline is going to have environmental impacts, including water quality, erosion issues, safety, and the beauty of the property that it crosses.  Some of the impacts will be short-term, others will be generational.  Water and erosion impacts will exist mainly during the construction and reclamation process.  Trees will be cut down, trenches dug and refilled, and rights of way maintained so that only grass and small bushes can grow there.  All of those things will affect water runoff, surface water quality, and stream water quality.  Safety and beauty will be factors for as long as the pipeline is there.  A 42-inch pipe represents a huge risk if an explosion occurs.  Pipelines don’t explode often, but when they do, it’s catastrophic.  I wouldn’t want to be within 1000 feet of one if it exploded, or even if it developed a small leak.  The right of way is going to be maintained in a constant state of clear cut, in part to help avoid the risk of leaking and explosion, but it will be an obviously man-made scar on the natural, wild beauty of the West Virginia mountains.  The right of way will exist for as long as there is gas to transport, which is likely to be for generations.

On the other hand, the Mountain Valley Pipeline is also going to have economic impacts, and they will be enormous.  Right now there is more gas in the Marcellus/Utica region than existing pipelines can handle.  Wells are shut-in because producers can’t get a good price for the gas, in part because the transportation cost is so high ($1/MCF) because the demand for transportation service is so high.  Demand for gas is growing, and will continue to grow, but our ability to transport it is limited.  We really need this and other big pipeline projects for gas development.  As pipeline projects are completed, the cost of transportation will go down, and more gas will flow out of the ground, allowing for more royalties to be paid.  The money that comes into the state from this pipeline will benefit everyone indirectly.

Indirect benefits don’t get people excited, though.  West Virginians would be more excited about this project if more of them could look into the future and expect to be paid royalties.  Unfortunately, many West Virginia oil and gas rights are tied up in heirships, and those heirs are scattered around the United States.  The huge majority of them have no idea that they own oil and gas rights in West Virginia, and only own a tiny fraction of an oil and gas right.  West Virginia needs a Dormant Minerals Act, but that is a subject for a separate post.  The point is that not enough West Virginian’s are going to directly benefit from this pipeline project.  Surface owners will be compensated for disturbance to their property, but neighbors and communities won’t see direct benefits.  They will be able to see the gap in the trees going across hilltops and hollers.

We supporte these big pipeline projects, but we also think it’s important to know what all the consequences and impacts are going to be.  Forewarned is forearmed.

UPS is Adding 60 LNG Trucks to its Fleet

Liquid Natural GasThis is the kind of news we like to see!  UPS is adding more Liquid Natural Gas fueled trucks to its existing fleet.  The new trucks will be based in Harrisburg, PA, taking advantage of inexpensive natural gas from the Marcellus and Utica shales.

One of the main drivers behind low prices for bonuses and royalties in West Virginia right now is the fact that there just isn’t enough demand for the product.  Wells are being shut in because there isn’t enough pipeline capacity to handle all the production.  Local use of natural gas would help drive those prices up.  Let’s see more natural gas vehicles!

The Latest on Oil Price Predictions

Dollar SignOil prices have dropped for a couple of days because the Saudis said they would keep pumping oil to keep up with demand.  Basically, if somebody wants to buy their oil, they’re going to sell it.  I’m personally surprised that anybody is surprised at this.  I’ll be surprised when the Saudis start to cut back on production.  Why the market thinks that the Saudis want high oil prices right now is beyond me.  They haven’t yet accomplished any of their (suspected) goals, except for keeping market share.  U. S. shale drillers are not yet going out of business in large numbers, and Venezuela, Russia, and Iran have not been hurt enough to make any serious changes.  Until those goals are accomplished, Saudi Arabia is going to keep pumping oil so that they keep their current customers.

On the other hand, experts are predicting that rig counts will bottom out in May.  I think this is too soon to start bringing rigs back, as supply needs to drop and prices need to climb before more rigs become economically sound.   Supply isn’t going to drop enough to justify bringing rigs back online because producers will be able to bring previously drilled non-producing wells online.

 

Pipelines are the Chokepoint

There’s an interesting article over at Environment & Energy Publishing that puts forth the premise that a lack of pipeline infrastructure is what’s really slowing down the growth of shale fracking.  I think they’re right.  Of course, once pipelines are in place, consumption will need to increase, but consumption will increase if the pipelines can be put in place.  There’s too much demand for cheap, clean energy, and natural gas offers the best balance of clean and cheap right now.

The Fracklog

Oil and gas prices aren’t going to rise astronomically in the near future.  That is, unless some unpredictable market force comes into play.  The reason: the fracklog.

Drillers have drilled lots of wells, but they have not turned them all on.  As prices come up, drillers will turn those wells on, and prices will either drop or stabilize.  There is a backlog of wells waiting to be turned on, or as Bloomberg puts it, a fracklog.

This Bloomberg article goes into more detail.

Efficiency Leads to Profits, and Should Lead to Higher Bonuses and Royalties

DocumentWell now, this is an interesting take on things.  It appears that oil and gas companies that are working in the shale formations are actually doing pretty well still, in spite of the decrease in energy prices.  This article from Bloomberg says that improvements in efficiency have probably made up for the decreases in prices.

The most interesting number that the article quotes, at least for my clients, is that Antero has costs of less $18/bbl of oil produced from Appalachia.  That’s pretty impressive.  It also means that they can afford to pay a bit more in bonus and royalty amounts.

When you’re negotiating your lease, make sure to ask for more than you think you can get.  In most cases, you will be pleasantly surprised.

PA Production Down

noise-maker-colorThis is big news.  (If that link doesn’t take you to the full article at MDN, do a Google search for the article’s title.)  PA’s DEP released production numbers for February, and total production as well as production across the board is down from January.  EQT’s production data is absent, but even if EQT’s production doubles from January (which it won’t), production will still be down.  I expect that the same thing is happening in other natural gas producing areas.

A reduction in production means a reduction in storage levels and a reduction in supply overall.  This is a direct result of the dwindling rig count everyone has been talking about for months.  This is also a direct result of low natural gas prices.  I’ve heard talk that some companies have been cutting back production from currently producing wells because of said prices.  Decreased production/supply should lead to an increase in price.

If and when prices start to go back up, we’ll see producers start to turn the spigots back on, and bring already drilled wells into production.  I don’t expect a huge jump in prices.  I also don’t expect to see many, if any, new rigs brought back to work.  There is just too much supply from currently producing wells and potential supply from completed but non-producing wells to justify firing up those idled rigs.  I expect that to happen about the beginning of 2016.

This isn’t the end of low gas prices, but it may be the beginning of the end.

Natural Gas Prices Could Rally this Year

According to this MarketWatch article, natural gas prices could go up in the near future.

There are a couple of key factors to look at.  First, gas storage is 11% lower than the five year average.  That number alone is not enough to drive prices up as it’s likely that continued production will fill the gap easily.  There are, after all, quite a few wells which have been drilled but haven’t been brought online, and I was reading some posts on Go Marcellus Shale by mineral owners who think that Chesapeake has been closing valves on wells just because it doesn’t want to produce lots of gas in a low market.

Second, drilling rig numbers have dropped off.  We’re down 46% from last year.  That’s a lot of drilling rigs idled in one year.  That means we’re not drilling as many new wells, regardless of increases in drilling efficiency.  As old wells’ production numbers drop, new wells will be brought online to replace them, but wells won’t be drilled to replace the wells that have been waiting to be brought online.

Natural gas demand is going up.  This is a long-term trend, not a short-term blip.  Coal fired power plants are being shuttered, and will be replaced by natural gas fired plants.  Pipelines are being built, and demand for natural gas to heat homes is going to increase.

Oil prices are also likely to start going up again, as a lot of the same factors are going to affect oil stockpiles and production in the U.S.

The future for natural gas prices may not be all shiny and rose-tinted yet, but it’s certainly not bleak.